Smokescreen.

 Sometime in the early 1340s, there was a massive volcanic eruption.

No written record of the event is known to survive, the exact date and location are unknown. Technically, we are not even sure if it was a single eruption, or multiple ones. We do know it happened, and that it was likely somewhere near the equator.

What evidence we have for this event is in physical evidence left behind; tree ring data shows a cooling between about 1343-1345ish, ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show that it was massive as well as showing it was near the equator because the amount of ashfall shows they are about equal in amount, with a little less in Antarctica, thus equator.

Now, a forest gets cold and grows slowly, no one cares. But crops are plants too, and people do care about those, and the reduced sunlight stunted their growth as well. And places like Germany, France, and the British Isles started to show a marked downturn in yields. There were reserves in these places as well, but those reserves were only meant to last a winter or two, and multiple bad crops in a row took their toil on them quickly.

People need to eat, this is not in debate. and when you don't have food where you are, you only really have three choices; move, raid your neighbors, or start trading for it. But when you are talking about areas the size of countries, the options are even more limited. Moving is not going to work for such a large population, and raiding is fine for smaller populations as well, but the logistics of passing out stolen food to 20 people is easy, 20,000 less so.

So, by the middle of the 1340s, trade in the area was ramped up significantly. There was more food, and other goods, streaming into the continent then ever.

Then, in 1348, the first cases of disease were recorded. The Black Death had come to Europe.

Now, I understand too well how humans think. I am not saying that this eruption caused the Black Death. Crop yields were down worldwide, including from the areas that Europe was importing from. There were in fact a number of factors that came together to cause this tragic space in human history.

But if you read writings about that time, even up to few years ago, the reason given would be the greed of Europeans. They were importing rugs and gold and luxuries along with the food, and that is often sighted as the 'cause' of the plague.

No one at the time knew about the eruption, no records of it exist, it was not even thought about until much later. In fact, it has only been since the turn of the 21st century that this evidence was even looked at.

Humans have a natural tendency to look for simple, clean cut answers about why things happen. This person did this, that person did that, have to find the scapegoat to pin the blame on.

Ever since there have been more than three people on the planet, nothing in human history has been simple. No one decision or event caused the Black Death.

If something like this can happen, with no clear cause or source of blame, when there are a few million people in the world, how much more obscure are the causes of things happening now, with billions now on Earth?

Humans want easy answers to questions like this, not because they are right, or even useful.

They want them so they can blame someone else, someone who is not 'me.'

You can't truly fix a problem, let alone prevent one, if you don't know why it happened.

And the only finger of blame that works, is the one you point at yourself.